Oscar Predictions - Best Actress

Best Actress (in rank order)

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education - Breakout performance in a very good film. Keeping up with Streep in precursors.
2. Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia - Remember what I said about biopics? Streep portrays Julia Childs with ease giving one of her best performances over the past five years (much better than Doubt in my opinion). However, she will most likely split votes with It's Complicated.
3. Gabourey Sidbe, Precious - Breakout performance in her first ever film. Will get nominated, but will not win. Very rarely does the Academy reward a first time actor ( Jennifer Hudson won, but this was for Supporting Actress and her role depended heavily on her singing voice. She also had a lot of prior exposure due to American Idol)
4. Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side - A-List actress gives career best performance. Scored major nominations in precursors. However, is the film and the role for that matter really Oscar worthy?
5. Helen Mirren, The Last Station - Former Oscar winner plays Leo Tolstoy's wife well (another biopic role). Films reviews are mixed, and film itself isn't too well known, which could hurt Mirren's chances.